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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 13 games
54%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
79%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
84%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 18 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
953 picks · 653 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
573 picks · 922 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 529 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 340 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1084 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
464 picks · 345 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:30
Team Aster 42%Shopify Rebellion 58%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMonet
56% · 170 games54% · 176 games
DoomArteezy
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXxs
46% · 387 games52% · 169 games
BroodmotherSabeRLight-
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
52% · 155 games50% · 271 game
MiranaFly
Mirana
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoBoKa
50% · 218 games46% · 409 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroFantasy
43% · 95 games
Game 2prediction correct21:30
Team Aster 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMonet
48% · 156 games40% · 38 games
Phantom AssassinArteezy
Phantom Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXxs
51% · 258 games56% · 239 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckXwy
62% · 228 games47% · 290 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Riki
RikiBoBoKa
53% · 83 games48% · 252 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroFantasy
42% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2