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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Oversightwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Cutloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
sunset · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MSS · 6 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 5 games
20%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MSS · 5 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
YawaR · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fata · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
MSS · 4 games
25%

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chives · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Save · 5 games
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Chives · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
954 picks · 654 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
575 picks · 921 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
532 picks · 531 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 342 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1085 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
465 picks · 345 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
The Oversight 40%The Cut 60%
The model gave 60% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSkyward
50% · 94 games43% · 13 games
Phantom AssassinScourge McDuck
Phantom Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorAtoufix
54% · 228 games39% · 75 games
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
Death Prophet
44% · 88 games
Primal BeastITALIANO GANGSTA
Primal Beast
54% · 25 games
Skywrath Magebgod
Skywrath Mage
57% · 121 game
MiranaJubei
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed43:24
The Oversight 39%The Cut 61%
The model gave 61% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Oversight in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkyward
41% · 65 games57% · 68 games
MarciScourge McDuck
Marci
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAtoufix
48% · 123 games57% · 42 games
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Ember Spirit
56% · 26 games
Dragon KnightITALIANO GANGSTA
Dragon Knight
50% · 24 games
Skywrath Magebgod
Skywrath Mage
53% · 28 games
DisruptorJubei
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed35:26
The Oversight 41%The Cut 59%
The model gave 59% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Oversight in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciSkyward
48% · 222 games52% · 13 games
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
Necrophos
Monkey King
Monkey KingAtoufix
52% · 205 games51% · 99 games
DoomITALIANO GANGSTA
Doom
45% · 70 games
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
Bloodseeker
47% · 104 games
Hoodwinkbgod
Hoodwink
57% · 141 game
MiranaJubei
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 68%
Series resultThe Oversight 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3