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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Breeki Cheekiwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Breeki Cheeki

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
50%
Luna
Luna
DarkLord^ · 2 games
50%

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 4 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 586 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 410 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 405 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 483 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 204 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
410 picks · 258 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 875 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Breeki Cheeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Breeki Cheeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Breeki Cheeki 56%BTC Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 22:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritспортик
54% · 313 games43% · 86 games
HuskarAlone
Huskar
Batrider
BatriderChodΣX
52% · 269 games48% · 402 games
Storm SpiritMnz
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingDarkLord^
62% · 148 games53% · 35 games
IoMjz
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
42% · 103 games49% · 319 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Lich
Lichasdekor_r
47% · 9 games
Game 2prediction correct51:25
Breeki Cheeki 59%BTC Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDarkLord^
70% · 6 games39% · 223 games
GyrocopterMnz
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckспортик
53% · 309 games50% · 30 games
RikiAlone
Riki
Phoenix
PhoenixChodΣX
53% · 154 games50% · 275 games
BatriderPrada
Batrider
Largo
LargoOneJey
59% · 71 game42% · 258 games
RingmasterMjz
Ringmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
56% · 246 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBreeki Cheeki · 64%
Series resultBreeki Cheeki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2