DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 17 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 13 games
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
nouns
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 14 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Tiny
Lelis · 9 games
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Snapfire
Lelis · 7 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
953 picks · 652 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 459 bans
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
514 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
493 picks · 1078 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:38
OG 59%nouns 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkYuragi
MorphlingGunnar
DoomDM
Chaos KnightYamSun
Ember Spiritbzm
Witch DoctorMoo
TechiesTaiga
TinyLelis
DisruptorChuvash
MiranaHusky
Game 2prediction correct44:14
OG 62%nouns 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierbzm
DoomMoo
SlarkYuragi
Naga SirenYamSun
VenomancerDM
Storm SpiritGunnar
Monkey KingTaiga
RubickLelis
DisruptorChuvash
UndyingHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 70%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2