DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Disruptor
GH · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
953 picks · 652 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 459 bans
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
514 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
493 picks · 1078 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:47
Nigma Galaxy 15%beastcoast 85%
The model gave 85% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 51:56.
Game 2prediction correct21:30
Nigma Galaxy 15%beastcoast 85%
The model gave 85% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 29:03.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 85%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2