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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 32 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Boxi · 18 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
87%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 21 game
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 21 game
81%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 19 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
953 picks · 652 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 459 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 919 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
535 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
514 picks · 340 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
493 picks · 1078 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 346 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Team Liquid 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
52% · 51 game51% · 195 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
53% · 176 games48% · 187 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
40% · 198 games50% · 94 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
50% · 235 games53% · 229 games
Monkey KingQ
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
50% · 152 games54% · 107 games
IoOli
Io
Game 2prediction missed19:50
Team Liquid 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
43% · 108 games49% · 95 games
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
49% · 285 games48% · 227 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
54% · 189 games51% · 211 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
53% · 284 games51% · 375 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskBoxi
53% · 303 games48% · 261 game
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2