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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
82%
Tusk
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
59%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 42 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
82%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
953 picks · 652 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 459 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 919 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
535 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
514 picks · 340 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
493 picks · 1078 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 346 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Tundra Esports 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
51% · 138 games55% · 95 games
SlarkYatoro
Slark
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
53% · 374 games58% · 225 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
42% · 224 games48% · 382 games
SnapfireCollapse
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 310 games55% · 331 game
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
37% · 318 games56% · 331 game
MiranaMiposhka
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed33:15
Tundra Esports 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
52% · 167 games41% · 73 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNine
53% · 347 games45% · 399 games
SnapfireLarl
Snapfire
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
50% · 118 games56% · 74 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 255 games51% · 293 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
52% · 294 games49% · 342 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2