Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
955 picks · 651 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 460 bans
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 917 bans
Tusk
555 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
514 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
492 picks · 1078 bans
Clockwerk
462 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
Alliance 61%PuckChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 36:56.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Alliance 61%PuckChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2