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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 41 game
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 31 game
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 28 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 27 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 22 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Hellscream · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 586 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 408 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 405 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 480 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
422 picks · 204 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
410 picks · 258 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 872 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:29
Tundra Esports 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
49% · 95 games60% · 61 game
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
55% · 58 games41% · 255 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
55% · 144 games45% · 76 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
48% · 87 games48% · 150 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
54% · 203 games51% · 45 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct28:21
Tundra Esports 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
48% · 81 game47% · 167 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Lone Druid
Lone DruidV-Tune
50% · 12 games55% · 75 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand King33
49% · 93 games51% · 97 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAri
50% · 39 games50% · 20 games
LichFly
Lich
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
50% · 247 games52% · 113 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed33:30
Tundra Esports 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
47% · 133 games48% · 207 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Tiny
TinyV-Tune
49% · 436 games52% · 137 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Underlord
Underlord33
53% · 235 games46% · 271 game
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
56% · 325 games53% · 45 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeWhitemon
51% · 46 games46% · 515 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 85%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3