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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 18 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 11 games
91%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 9 games
33%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 9 games
89%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 24 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shanks · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
954 picks · 646 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 457 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 917 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
510 picks · 339 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
491 picks · 1074 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 346 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:32
TSM 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by Execration in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTimado
42% · 68 games48% · 156 games
Shadow FiendBob
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
52% · 293 games53% · 134 games
KunkkaPalos
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
64% · 62 games49% · 323 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
45% · 306 games53% · 351 game
MiranaShanks
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
46% · 235 games
Game 2prediction correct34:27
TSM 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
46% · 59 games52% · 142 games
DawnbreakerPalos
Dawnbreaker
Huskar
Huskarbryle-
50% · 40 games43% · 322 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkasane
51% · 301 game58% · 99 games
VisageTino-
Visage
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
53% · 67 games55% · 335 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Rubick
RubickAri
45% · 431 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2