?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 12 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Monet · 12 games
33%

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 17 games
76%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 12 games
83%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
954 picks · 646 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 457 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 917 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
510 picks · 339 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
491 picks · 1074 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 346 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
Team Aster 39%Evil Geniuses 61%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXxs
47% · 243 games56% · 182 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Spectre
SpectreMonet
52% · 54 games46% · 221 game
BatriderChris Luck
Batrider
Puck
PuckXwy
56% · 300 games41% · 132 games
LeshracWisper
Leshrac
Oracle
OracleBoBoKa
56% · 38 games49% · 273 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
51% · 245 games49% · 72 games
IoPanda
Io
Game 2prediction correct6:28
Team Aster 40%Evil Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
45% · 91 game43% · 142 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
53% · 76 games60% · 82 games
Night StalkerPakazs
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
58% · 143 games53% · 195 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
45% · 200 games57% · 95 games
RikiMatthew
Riki
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
45% · 121 game43% · 117 games
JakiroPanda
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 67%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2