DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 20 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
Tiny
Boxi · 18 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
954 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
553 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
508 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
489 picks · 1073 bans
Clockwerk
461 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 77%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Tundra Esports 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
MorphlingmiCKe
ZeusNine
TimbersawNisha
Enigma33
Death Prophetzai
SnapfireSaksa
MiranaBoxi
EnchantressSneyking
BaneiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct18:44
Tundra Esports 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster33
DoommiCKe
Troll WarlordSkiter
SniperNisha
InvokerNine
Pugnazai
RubickSaksa
DisruptoriNSaNiA
UndyingSneyking
Monkey KingBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2