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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Gunnar · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 8 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Moo · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lelis · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
83%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 40 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
82%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
951 picks · 640 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
570 picks · 911 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 441 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
489 picks · 1071 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 343 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
nouns 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYamSun
51% · 125 games55% · 37 games
Anti-MageYatoro
Anti-Mage
Broodmother
BroodmotherMoo
48% · 151 game53% · 187 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Tusk
TuskGunnar
50% · 378 games50% · 219 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
48% · 255 games48% · 504 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixHusky
51% · 116 games47% · 78 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Game 2prediction correct35:39
nouns 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
53% · 375 games41% · 208 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingYamSun
57% · 234 games48% · 301 game
DoomCollapse
Doom
Tiny
TinyGunnar
52% · 834 games49% · 269 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorLelis
58% · 342 games43% · 756 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Undying
UndyingHusky
52% · 363 games47% · 614 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2