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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%

Nigma Galaxy

Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
951 picks · 640 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
657 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
570 picks · 911 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 441 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
489 picks · 1071 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 343 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:29
OG 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 53:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerbzm
49% · 8 games48% · 111 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Slark
SlarkYuragi
59% · 66 games47% · 76 games
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
50% · 66 games62% · 27 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
51% · 43 games52% · 29 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Disruptor
DisruptorChuvash
46% · 139 games45% · 79 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct29:16
OG 67%Nigma Galaxy 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
44% · 121 game45% · 29 games
Anti-MageMiracle-
Anti-Mage
Sven
SvenYuragi
56% · 59 games42% · 249 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
49% · 235 games53% · 124 games
Primal BeastMinD_ContRoL
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaiga
54% · 169 games48% · 146 games
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Techies
TechiesChuvash
53% · 52 games55% · 88 games
IoGH
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 80%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2