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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Se · 5 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 4 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 3 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
ace12 · 3 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 2 games
100%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
952 picks · 638 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 457 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
572 picks · 910 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 442 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 531 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
509 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
489 picks · 1071 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
463 picks · 343 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 38%
Hero pool strength69% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:36
IHC Esports 65%UD Vessuwan 35%
The model gave 65% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 1:02:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSancity
48% · 103 games55% · 114 games
Dragon KnightBeebie
Dragon Knight
Broodmother
Broodmother423
49% · 207 games51% · 129 games
Naga SirenKNP
Naga Siren
Jakiro
JakiroSe
51% · 80 games55% · 168 games
Miranaboombell
Mirana
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkace12
44% · 226 games48% · 205 games
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed41:26
IHC Esports 64%UD Vessuwan 36%
The model gave 64% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaSancity
44% · 92 games51% · 368 games
PangolierBeebie
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyace12
46% · 397 games54% · 91 game
LifestealerKNP
Lifestealer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter423
50% · 14 games54% · 42 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Mirana
MiranaSe
52% · 210 games51% · 212 games
UndyingLionaX
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 76%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2