DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 24 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 20 games
Tiny
Shanks · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Linasignature
Palos · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
947 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
656 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 905 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
506 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1070 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Execration 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:12.
Game 2prediction missed21:49
Execration 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Entity in 37:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2