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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 2 games
50%

iG Vitality

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
86%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sj · 7 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 6 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 4 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Summer · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
948 picks · 637 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
568 picks · 903 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 533 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1069 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 340 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% iG Vitality
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
Supernova 55%iG Vitality 45%
The model gave 55% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
Tusksheep
55% · 291 game39% · 42 games
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Shadow Fiend
48% · 126 games
PangolierAsh
Pangolier
33% · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritdolem
Vengeful Spirit
53% · 79 games
DisruptorDrink
Disruptor
46% · 33 games
JakiroSj
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Supernova 48%iG Vitality 52%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsheep
52% · 61 game50% · 10 games
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Shadow Fiend
59% · 13 games
Queen of PainAsh
Queen of Pain
43% · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritdolem
Vengeful Spirit
30% · 6 games
JakiroSj
Jakiro
45% · 29 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct36:17
Supernova 52%iG Vitality 48%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinysheep
51% · 609 games51% · 76 games
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Shadow Fiend
56% · 89 games
Visagedolem
Visage
47% · 93 games
RazorAsh
Razor
50% · 262 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
40% · 89 games
SilencerSj
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 55%
Series resultSupernova 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3