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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
孤独摇滚loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 2 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%

孤独摇滚

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
944 picks · 639 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
568 picks · 901 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 442 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 534 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1066 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 340 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 孤独摇滚
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:31
Team Disillusion 47%孤独摇滚 53%
The model gave 53% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
48% · 61 game46% · 114 games
Beastmasterstrawberry
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorEren
60% · 53 games
Game 2prediction missed40:17
Team Disillusion 47%孤独摇滚 53%
The model gave 53% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
61% · 24 games39% · 102 games
Doomstrawberry
Doom
Rubick
RubickEren
61% · 78 games
Model check result
Model favorite孤独摇滚 · 56%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2