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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 2:3
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:3
ex-HellRaiserswin 3:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 10 games
30%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 9 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Malady · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
25%

ex-HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
937 picks · 636 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 456 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 897 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 537 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
504 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
483 picks · 1061 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 336 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% ex-HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% ex-HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:46
Natus Vincere 28%ex-HellRaisers 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers in 35:36.
Game 2prediction missed73:26
Natus Vincere 28%ex-HellRaisers 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:15.
Game 3prediction correct17:34
Natus Vincere 28%ex-HellRaisers 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers in 32:56.
Game 4prediction missed30:17
Natus Vincere 28%ex-HellRaisers 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:52.
Game 5prediction correct26:43
Natus Vincere 28%ex-HellRaisers 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-HellRaisers — the game was taken by ex-HellRaisers in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-HellRaisers · 72%
Series resultex-HellRaisers 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5