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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Big Brainloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
100%

Big Brain

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
blessing · 5 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
937 picks · 641 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 458 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 896 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 540 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
485 picks · 1061 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 336 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Disillusion 53%Big Brain 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastKilla
53% · 222 games36% · 42 games
Templar AssassinManic
Templar Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorEren
54% · 221 game42% · 49 games
TimbersawMolasses
Timbersaw
62% · 37 games
RikiEcho
Riki
51% · 175 games
Tuskmarblue
Tusk
42% · 140 games
SnapfireTz.
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed11:27
Team Disillusion 52%Big Brain 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Big Brain in 22:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
47% · 260 games61% · 81 game
Templar AssassinManic
Templar Assassin
Rubick
RubickEren
43% · 590 games53% · 171 game
BeastmasterMolasses
Beastmaster
48% · 219 games
Ember SpiritEcho
Ember Spirit
53% · 208 games
ClockwerkTz.
Clockwerk
58% · 171 game
Disruptormarblue
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct23:36
Team Disillusion 54%Big Brain 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 51:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKilla
51% · 361 game53% · 109 games
DoomMolasses
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressEren
46% · 243 games43% · 79 games
SniperManic
Sniper
55% · 91 game
Storm SpiritEcho
Storm Spirit
53% · 170 games
Miranamarblue
Mirana
52% · 155 games
TuskTz.
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 56%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3