Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction孤孤独摇滚loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Holy Grailwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Underlord
Tzy · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
938 picks · 641 bans
Tiny
656 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
563 picks · 897 bans
Tusk
548 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
503 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
486 picks · 1059 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% 孤独摇滚
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
孤独摇滚 56%Holy Grail 44%
The model gave 56% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
43% · 45 games
TimbersawTzy
44% · 14 games
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction correct55:41
孤独摇滚 57%Holy Grail 43%
The model gave 57% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetstrawberry
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
45% · 7 games
Sand KingTzy
50% · 12 games
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Game 3prediction missed10:35
孤独摇滚 55%Holy Grail 45%
The model gave 55% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomstrawberry
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
53% · 68 games
TuskTzy
60% · 76 games
Rubickomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favorite孤独摇滚 · 54%
Series resultHoly Grail 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3