Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Old Gloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 13 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 11 games
Broodmothersignature
Malik · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
935 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
653 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 891 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
501 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1054 bans
Clockwerk
457 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 77%
Hero pool strength57% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:44
D2 Hustlers 38%Old G 62%
The model gave 62% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 39:58.
Game 2prediction correct32:26
D2 Hustlers 38%Old G 62%
The model gave 62% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 41:55.
Game 3prediction correct38:29
D2 Hustlers 38%Old G 62%
The model gave 62% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 46:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 62%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3