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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 13 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 10 games
40%

Ancient Tribe

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 9 games
22%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
933 picks · 639 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 456 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 888 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 439 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
499 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
482 picks · 1053 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
455 picks · 334 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
IVY 42%Ancient Tribe 58%
The model gave 58% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpio65
40% · 213 games48% · 316 games
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
48% · 467 games54% · 103 games
Sniperlil pleb
Sniper
Mirana
MiranaQupe
57% · 473 games45% · 398 games
SnapfireMikSa`
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingjmn-
52% · 469 games52% · 522 games
TinyAlexxo
Tiny
54% · 283 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct20:21
IVY 42%Ancient Tribe 58%
The model gave 58% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonpio65
48% · 99 games51% · 174 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierStojkov
47% · 405 games50% · 129 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQupe
48% · 377 games51% · 192 games
Dragon KnightMikSa`
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
Disruptorjmn-
58% · 308 games46% · 433 games
RubickAlexxo
Rubick
51% · 261 game
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 67%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2