Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
Tims · 15 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Snapfire
xNova · 11 games
Disruptor
Skem · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 8 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
933 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
557 picks · 887 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
499 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
481 picks · 1052 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
BOOM Esports 71%XERXIA 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:43.
Game 2prediction correct54:18
BOOM Esports 71%XERXIA 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2