Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 13 games
Rubick
xsvampire · 13 games
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
931 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
556 picks · 886 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
498 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
479 picks · 1052 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:20
Natus Vincere 54%Into The Breach 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerShigetsu
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Zeusmellojul
Ember SpiritSupream^
Dragon KnightMalik
Death ProphetXibbe
Rubickxsvampire
SnapfireRESPECT
JakiroMalady
Earth SpiritImmersion
Game 2prediction correct52:11
Natus Vincere 54%Into The Breach 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkShigetsu
UrsaOtaker
Dragon KnightMalik
BeastmasterXibbe
Pangoliermellojul
Death ProphetSupream^
Miranaxsvampire
RubickImmersion
DisruptorMalady
JakiroRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2