Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
Rubick
Gardick · 16 games
Disruptor
Gardick · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 14 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
Silencer
Gardick · 12 games
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
928 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 454 bans
Nature's Prophet
555 picks · 884 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 542 bans
Snapfire
497 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
479 picks · 1049 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mad Kings
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
Dreamers 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 35:01.
Game 2prediction correct46:29
Dreamers 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 53%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2