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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GamerLegionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 35 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 31 game
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 29 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 28 games
46%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%

GamerLegion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 23 games
70%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 22 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 409 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 470 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
416 picks · 196 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 263 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 866 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:37
MOUZ 51%GamerLegion 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 39:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCrystallis
49% · 225 games49% · 363 games
BeastmasterRCY
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
46% · 226 games53% · 9 games
NecrophosGhost
Necrophos
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
59% · 155 games51% · 182 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Io
Ioyamich
45% · 23 games49% · 76 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
48% · 141 game52% · 140 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed15:36
MOUZ 51%GamerLegion 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallis
50% · 216 games51% · 270 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Puck
PuckLorenof
43% · 361 game54% · 106 games
HuskarRCY
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
43% · 209 games54% · 272 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Rubick
Rubickyamich
48% · 172 games51% · 263 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
50% · 295 games56% · 342 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultGamerLegion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2