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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 23 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 12 games
42%

OG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Taiga · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
924 picks · 630 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
647 picks · 453 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
552 picks · 883 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 437 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 542 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
496 picks · 333 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
477 picks · 1043 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
451 picks · 327 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
Virtus.pro 39%OG 61%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
51% · 269 games49% · 47 games
Anti-MageYuragi
Anti-Mage
Kunkka
KunkkaSquad1x
51% · 105 games51% · 103 games
BroodmotherDM
Broodmother
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
57% · 37 games55% · 74 games
Magnusbzm
Magnus
Mirana
Miranasayuw
50% · 301 game43% · 255 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingFng
49% · 271 game51% · 504 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed36:21
Virtus.pro 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
48% · 280 games44% · 229 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
49% · 410 games56% · 231 game
DoomDM
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
53% · 81 game48% · 726 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaFng
55% · 391 game49% · 144 games
ZeusTaiga
Zeus
Clockwerk
Clockwerksayuw
50% · 462 games50% · 294 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2