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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 11 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
17%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
80%

Nigma Galaxy

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 28 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 23 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 408 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 398 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 466 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 192 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 263 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 859 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:24
Roar Gaming 28%Nigma Galaxy 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painukiyo
48% · 288 games45% · 200 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Beastmaster
Beastmaster生死
47% · 306 games52% · 488 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
50% · 372 games49% · 421 game
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderCatYou
47% · 273 games56% · 123 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
54% · 83 games54% · 90 games
OracleGH
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct
Roar Gaming 15%Nigma Galaxy 85%
The model gave 85% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 85%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2