Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Old Gwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kidaro · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 12 games
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 11 games
Broodmothersignature
Malik · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
920 picks · 625 bans
Tiny
643 picks · 452 bans
Nature's Prophet
548 picks · 876 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
491 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
473 picks · 1035 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 82%
Hero pool strength59% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:27
Into The Breach 41%Old G 59%
The model gave 59% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightOtaker
Nature's ProphetResolut1on
BeastmasterXibbe
AbaddonNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritSupream^
OracleTopson
MiranaRESPECT
ClockwerkCeb
UndyingImmersion
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Into The Breach 39%Old G 61%
The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeOtaker
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
Ember SpiritSupream^
LycanResolut1on
BeastmasterXibbe
ZeusTopson
UndyingRESPECT
SnapfireCeb
TechiesImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 68%
Series resultOld G 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2