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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xNova · 10 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Skem · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 8 games
25%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 25 games
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 18 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
43%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
918 picks · 621 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
643 picks · 451 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
545 picks · 872 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 437 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
539 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
486 picks · 332 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
472 picks · 1027 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 322 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
BOOM Esports 65%SPAWN Team 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
52% · 218 games49% · 254 games
MorphlingDreamocel
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
54% · 410 games48% · 240 games
TimbersawwoMy
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
52% · 337 games48% · 443 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireXepher
47% · 525 games46% · 664 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Tusk
TuskxNova
50% · 565 games54% · 454 games
ClockwerkHyde
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct30:22
BOOM Esports 66%SPAWN Team 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
53% · 176 games52% · 188 games
LeshracMamangDaya
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
51% · 276 games46% · 153 games
Chaos KnightDreamocel
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
50% · 102 games53% · 60 games
BrewmasterwoMy
Brewmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerxNova
48% · 70 games44% · 323 games
Snapfiredalul
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorXepher
55% · 179 games48% · 79 games
IoHyde
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2