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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bottega · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Teehee · 7 games
14%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Teehee · 5 games
20%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 408 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 398 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 466 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 192 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
412 picks · 263 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 859 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:32
MODUS 34%Ivory 66%
The model gave 66% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
51% · 399 games42% · 267 games
GyrocopterKarma丶
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmasterelmo^^
46% · 122 games48% · 427 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
55% · 407 games58% · 268 games
BristlebackRupido
Bristleback
Rubick
Rubickmrls
48% · 71 game47% · 122 games
DazzleTeehee
Dazzle
Phoenix
Phoenixprblms
52% · 203 games52% · 118 games
LionDric~
Lion
Game 2prediction missed29:2
MODUS 36%Ivory 64%
The model gave 64% on Ivory — the game was taken by MODUS in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
41% · 366 games46% · 300 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Slardar
Slardarelmo^^
59% · 391 game47% · 385 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Alchemist
Alchemistbottega
53% · 62 games49% · 369 games
TinyKarma丶
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
56% · 481 game49% · 550 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Disruptor
Disruptorprblms
54% · 440 games46% · 136 games
Skywrath MageDric~
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed37:14
MODUS 33%Ivory 67%
The model gave 67% on Ivory — the game was taken by MODUS in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidbottega
63% · 8 games60% · 149 games
Naga SirenKarma丶
Naga Siren
Pangolier
Pangolierxn丶e
42% · 264 games49% · 240 games
UnderlordRupido
Underlord
Slardar
Slardarelmo^^
56% · 164 games55% · 382 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Muerta
Muertamrls
43% · 173 games54% · 122 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
Tuskprblms
45% · 443 games48% · 159 games
RubickDric~
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 79%
Series resultMODUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3