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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
77%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 22 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 50 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 41 game
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 37 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 34 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 30 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 396 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 461 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 192 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
409 picks · 263 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
377 picks · 855 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Xtreme Gaming 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
53% · 124 games78% · 10 games
Lone DruidNightfall
Lone Druid
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
50% · 158 games43% · 279 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
55% · 199 games54% · 295 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
53% · 137 games48% · 268 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
47% · 306 games43% · 72 games
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct11:40
Xtreme Gaming 44%Aurora Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
43% · 437 games59% · 9 games
Lone DruidNightfall
Lone Druid
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
53% · 293 games48% · 263 games
UnderlordWs
Underlord
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
54% · 177 games53% · 490 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
52% · 438 games51% · 500 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterxNova
49% · 348 games47% · 431 game
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct14:28
Xtreme Gaming 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
50% · 108 gameslittle data
Lone DruidNightfall
Lone Druid
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
48% · 221 game52% · 184 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
52% · 228 games50% · 161 game
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
Techiesfy
41% · 42 games50% · 214 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickxNova
51% · 120 games52% · 160 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3