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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 30 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 6 games
17%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kidaro · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
908 picks · 620 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 447 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
540 picks · 870 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 434 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
482 picks · 330 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
471 picks · 1014 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 317 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 29%
Hero pool strength65% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:33
PSG Quest 63%Into The Breach 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMinD_ContRoL
52% · 145 games52% · 182 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
48% · 426 games54% · 285 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWuiter
47% · 214 games56% · 294 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Rubick
RubickOmaR
44% · 575 games52% · 379 games
MiranaImmersion
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
45% · 111 games51% · 331 game
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Game 2prediction correct38:24
PSG Quest 62%Into The Breach 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
54% · 329 games48% · 106 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo!ob
53% · 163 games51% · 171 game
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWuiter
40% · 63 games51% · 163 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Tusk
TuskOmaR
50% · 472 games49% · 459 games
RubickImmersion
Rubick
Io
IoKaori
45% · 108 games54% · 236 games
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Game 3prediction missed26:47
PSG Quest 64%Into The Breach 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:10:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNo!ob
50% · 152 games47% · 158 games
Chaos KnightOtaker
Chaos Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWuiter
52% · 145 games52% · 122 games
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
55% · 298 games47% · 65 games
RikiSupream^
Riki
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 141 game53% · 282 games
MiranaRESPECT
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorOmaR
54% · 277 games41% · 386 games
RubickImmersion
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 71%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3