Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
孤孤独摇滚win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tiny
blessing · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 4 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 4 games
Tusk
marblue · 4 games
孤独摇滚
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Marsoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
strawberry · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
899 picks · 619 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
539 picks · 859 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
481 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
468 picks · 1008 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% 孤独摇滚
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:32
Big Brain 44%孤独摇滚 56%
The model gave 56% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingManic
Doomstrawberry
BeastmasterMolasses
PangolierEcho
Rubickmarblue
DisruptorTz.
Game 2prediction missed37:16
Big Brain 40%孤独摇滚 60%
The model gave 60% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Big Brain in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenManic
Beastmasterstrawberry
DoomMolasses
Keeper of the LightEcho
Miranamarblue
DisruptorTz.
Game 3prediction correct16:42
Big Brain 43%孤独摇滚 57%
The model gave 57% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by 孤独摇滚 in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidManic
Dawnbreakerstrawberry
DoomMolasses
Ember SpiritEcho
Enchantressmarblue
DisruptorTz.
Model check result
Model favorite孤独摇滚 · 65%
Series result孤独摇滚 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3