Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 13 games
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 11 games
Rubick
xsvampire · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
Ancient Tribe
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 12 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
899 picks · 619 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
539 picks · 859 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
481 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
468 picks · 1008 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Natus Vincere 54%Ancient Tribe 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanMalik
Sniperlil pleb
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Death ProphetMo13ei
Dragon Knightmellojul
MarsMikSa`
Rubickxsvampire
TinyAlexxo
JakiroMalady
UndyingLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct55:18
Natus Vincere 50%Ancient Tribe 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
Anti-Magelil pleb
Tinymellojul
LycanMikSa`
MagnusMalik
TimbersawMo13ei
Rubickxsvampire
SnapfireAlexxo
ChenMalady
LichLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2