Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Snapfire
KuroKy · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
GH · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
896 picks · 618 bans
Tiny
637 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 856 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
478 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
467 picks · 1005 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% Entity
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total70% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:10
Entity 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 70%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1