Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Monaspaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
894 picks · 618 bans
Tiny
635 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 855 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 544 bans
Snapfire
478 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
467 picks · 1003 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
Entity 64%Monaspa 36%
The model gave 64% on Entity — the game was taken by Monaspa in 35:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 64%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1