Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 15 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
Rubick
MoOz · 9 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 6 games
Linasignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 6 games
Team DogChamp
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 19 games
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 11 games
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
893 picks · 618 bans
Tiny
635 picks · 442 bans
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 853 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
477 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
467 picks · 1001 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:49
B8 Esports 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 1:02:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusDendi
ViperSunlight
BloodseekerStoneBank
PangolierRCY
Dragon KnightFunn1k
TuskFrancisLee
RubickCTOMAHEH1
SilencerBloody Nine
DisruptorLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 60%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1