Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UALEIKUMNIHAO
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 3 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
b1kA · 3 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 2 games
Disruptor
Mary_y · 2 games
Into The Breach
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 6 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 6 games
Rubick
RESPECT · 6 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kidaro · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
891 picks · 617 bans
Tiny
635 picks · 442 bans
Nature's Prophet
536 picks · 852 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 544 bans
Snapfire
477 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
465 picks · 1001 bans
Clockwerk
437 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 25%
Hero pool strength67% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
UALEIKUMNIHAO 61%Into The Breach 39%
The model gave 61% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
AlchemistOtaker
PuckhAze
RikiSupream^
EnigmaShergarat
BeastmasterXibbe
MiranaMary_y
PhoenixImmersion
Clockwerkb1kA
DisruptorRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct39:20
UALEIKUMNIHAO 62%Into The Breach 38%
The model gave 62% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 54:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
LycanXibbe
Death ProphethAze
GyrocopterOtaker
EnigmaShergarat
BatriderSupream^
Treant Protectorb1kA
RubickImmersion
DisruptorMary_y
ClockwerkRESPECT
Game 3prediction missed7:29
UALEIKUMNIHAO 61%Into The Breach 39%
The model gave 61% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPalantimos
LeshracSupream^
Death ProphetShergarat
SniperOtaker
Storm SpirithAze
BroodmotherXibbe
Treant Protectorb1kA
ClockwerkRESPECT
LichMary_y
RubickImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 67%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3