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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jaunuel · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 11 games
82%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
30%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Skem · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 10 games
50%

Polaris Esports

Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 13 games
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 11 games
73%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
886 picks · 612 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
632 picks · 439 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 433 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
532 picks · 846 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
475 picks · 328 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
464 picks · 994 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 312 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:13
Geek Fam 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSkem
50% · 118 games38% · 127 games
Drow RangerAkashi
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaForce
51% · 263 games52% · 352 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
50% · 781 game53% · 248 games
Nature's ProphetBoomy
Nature's Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorJaunuel
57% · 284 games47% · 417 games
TuskBok
Tusk
48% · 302 games
Undyingcml
Undying
Game 2prediction missed41:16
Geek Fam 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSkem
48% · 9 games52% · 111 games
Nature's ProphetBok
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
56% · 88 games41% · 29 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
51% · 49 games42% · 126 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
55% · 379 games48% · 155 games
TuskBoomy
Tusk
44% · 104 games
Miranacml
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 56%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2