Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Betrayedloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Betrayed
Disruptor
Flash · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
symetricaL · 4 games
Rubick
Flash · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Shad · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 3 games
Tiny
OwnedMe · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
MoneyMakers
Rubick
Bignum · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
Phoenix
Bignum · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
886 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Nature's Prophet
532 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
475 picks · 328 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 994 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Betrayed
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
Betrayed 55%MoneyMakers 45%
The model gave 55% on Betrayed — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerShad
LifestealerLukas
Primal BeastMirage
BeastmasterBb3px
SlardarOwnedMe
ZeusEgor
DisruptorTANNER
EnchantressBignum
Treant ProtectorFlash
Elder TitanCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction missed11:37
Betrayed 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on Betrayed — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomShad
LeshracEgor
Shadow FiendMirage
Nature's ProphetBb3px
Primal BeastOwnedMe
UrsaLukas
MiranaTANNER
Dark WillowBignum
IoFlash
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteBetrayed · 61%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2