Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 13 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Monet · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
883 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
631 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Nature's Prophet
531 picks · 846 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
474 picks · 328 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 990 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
Invictus Gaming 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:57.
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Invictus Gaming 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:58.
Game 3prediction correct35:21
Invictus Gaming 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 51:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3