Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 16 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 12 games
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 9 games
Tusk
Sunlight · 8 games
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Sammyboy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 20 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dnm · 14 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 12 games
Silencer
albinozebra · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
881 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
626 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
528 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
472 picks · 327 bans
Death Prophet
463 picks · 985 bans
Clockwerk
426 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Wildcard Gaming 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYawaR
Shadow Fiendred2
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Bloodseekerdnm
LycanMSS
Witch DoctorSpeeed
SnapfireLil_Nick
TuskMoOz
DisruptorSammyboy
SilencerGiant
Game 2prediction missed54:21
Wildcard Gaming 47%5RATFORCESTAFF 53%
The model gave 53% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawAdzantick
Drow Rangerdnm
MorphlingYawaR
Ember Spiritred2
PangolierLil_Nick
UnderlordSpeeed
DisruptorMSS
TuskMoOz
ClockwerkSammyboy
UndyingGiant
Game 3prediction correct24:36
Wildcard Gaming 43%5RATFORCESTAFF 57%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYawaR
Nature's Prophetdnm
TimbersawAdzantick
DoomSpeeed
SnapfireLil_Nick
Ember Spiritred2
Primal BeastMSS
MiranaMoOz
Death ProphetSammyboy
ClockwerkGiant
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 59%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3