Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Infamous.Rwin 1:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous.R
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
881 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
626 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
528 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
472 picks · 327 bans
Death Prophet
463 picks · 984 bans
Clockwerk
425 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Infamous.R
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:32
Infamous.R 31%Alliance.LATAM 69%
The model gave 69% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 42:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 69%
Series resultInfamous.R 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1