Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alliance.LATAMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
881 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
626 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
528 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
471 picks · 327 bans
Death Prophet
463 picks · 983 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
Keyd Stars 35%Alliance.LATAM 65%
The model gave 65% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Alliance.LATAM in 41:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 65%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1