Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Rubick
Taiga · 10 games
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 9 games
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
879 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
626 picks · 435 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
526 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
471 picks · 326 bans
Death Prophet
462 picks · 980 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Entity
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total50% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
OG 50%Entity 50%
The model gave 50% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 43:48.
Game 2prediction missed29:18
OG 50%Entity 50%
The model gave 50% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 34:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 50%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2