Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 1:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Pucksignature
4dr · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
879 picks · 610 bans
Tiny
625 picks · 435 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
529 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
526 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
470 picks · 326 bans
Death Prophet
462 picks · 979 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:16
Keyd Stars 34%Alliance.LATAM 66%
The model gave 66% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 45:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 66%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1