Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Infamous.Rwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
4dr · 10 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Pucksignature
4dr · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
Infamous.R
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
879 picks · 608 bans
Tiny
624 picks · 434 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
528 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
525 picks · 841 bans
Snapfire
469 picks · 325 bans
Death Prophet
462 picks · 973 bans
Clockwerk
419 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:45
Keyd Stars 63%Infamous.R 37%
The model gave 63% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 1:23:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 63%
Series resultInfamous.R 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1