?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
88%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 15 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ori · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 12 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
871 picks · 607 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 431 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 432 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
520 picks · 839 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
466 picks · 324 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
462 picks · 969 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 306 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:8
LGD Gaming 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNothingToSay
53% · 142 games54% · 230 games
Nature's ProphetMonet
Nature's Prophet
Lone Druid
Lone Druidshiro
61% · 45 games49% · 168 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
51% · 286 games38% · 270 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marciy`
51% · 301 game48% · 36 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Disruptor
DisruptorpLAnet
57% · 202 games43% · 272 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 2prediction correct18:12
LGD Gaming 52%Team Aster 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
42% · 213 games57% · 138 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 332 games48% · 292 games
BatriderXwy
Batrider
Visage
Visagezeal
55% · 103 games47% · 585 games
RubickXxs
Rubick
Tiny
TinypLAnet
49% · 564 games52% · 258 games
Primal BeastBoBoKa
Primal Beast
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
46% · 112 games63% · 51 game
OmniknightFantasy
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2